A quantum probability explanation for violations of ‘rational’ decision theory

Two experimental tasks in psychology, the two-stage gambling game and the Prisoner's Dilemma game, show that people violate the sure thing principle of decision theory. These paradoxical findings have resisted explanation by classical decision theory for over a decade. A quantum probability mod...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the Royal Society. B, Biological sciences Biological sciences, 2009-06, Vol.276 (1665), p.2171-2178
Main Authors: Pothos, Emmanuel M., Busemeyer, Jerome R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Cognition
Cognitive dissonance
Cognitive models
Cognitive psychology
Cognitive Science
Decision Theory
Decision-Making
Game theory
Humans
Markov models
Modeling
Models, Theoretical
Prisoner's Dilemma
Prisoners dilemma
Probability
Psychology
Quantum mechanics
Quantum Probability
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Summary:Two experimental tasks in psychology, the two-stage gambling game and the Prisoner's Dilemma game, show that people violate the sure thing principle of decision theory. These paradoxical findings have resisted explanation by classical decision theory for over a decade. A quantum probability model, based on a Hilbert space representation and Schrödinger's equation, provides a simple and elegant explanation for this behaviour. The quantum model is compared with an equivalent Markov model and it is shown that the latter is unable to account for violations of the sure thing principle. Accordingly, it is argued that quantum probability provides a better framework for modelling human decision-making.
ISSN:0962-8452
1471-2954
DOI:10.1098/rspb.2009.0121