Extreme natural hazards: population growth, globalization and environmental change

Mankind is becoming ever more susceptible to natural disasters, largely as a consequence of population growth and globalization. It is likely that in the future, we will experience several disasters per year that kill more than 10 000 people. A calamity with a million casualties is just a matter of...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences physical, and engineering sciences, 2006-08, Vol.364 (1845), p.1875-1888
Main Authors: Huppert, Herbert E, Sparks, R. Stephen J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Disaster Planning - methods
Disaster Planning - organization & administration
Disaster Planning - statistics & numerical data
Disasters
Disasters - statistics & numerical data
Earth
Earthquakes
Environment
Extreme Events
Floods
Geophysics
Global Health
Globalization
Hurricanes
Internationality
Natural disasters
Natural Hazards
Population Growth
Risk Assessment - methods
Risk Factors
Risks
Tsunamis
Volcanoes
Warnings
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Summary:Mankind is becoming ever more susceptible to natural disasters, largely as a consequence of population growth and globalization. It is likely that in the future, we will experience several disasters per year that kill more than 10 000 people. A calamity with a million casualties is just a matter of time. This situation is mainly a consequence of increased vulnerability. Climate change may also be affecting the frequency of extreme weather events as well as the vulnerability of coastal areas due to sea-level rise. Disastrous outcomes can only increase unless better ways are found to mitigate the effects through improved forecasting and warning, together with more community preparedness and resilience. There are particular difficulties with extreme events, which can affect several countries, while the largest events can have global consequences. The hazards of supervolcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts could cause global disaster with threats to civilization and deaths of billions of people. Although these are very rare events, they will happen and require consideration. More frequent and smaller events in the wrong place at the wrong time could have very large human, environmental and economic effects. A sustained effort is needed to identify places at risk and take steps to apply science before the events occur.
ISSN:1364-503X
1471-2962
DOI:10.1098/rsta.2006.1803