RMB Revaluation and China's Trade: Does the RMB Have a Limited Effect on China's Surplus?

• Published in: 經濟論文叢刊 2018-09, Vol.46 (3), p.333-362
• Main Authors: 彭喜樞(Shi-Shu Peng), 劉名寰(Ming-Huan Liou), 楊浩彥(Hao-Yen Yang), 楊志海(Chih-Hai Yang)
• Format: Article
• Language: chi ; eng
• Subjects: dynamic panel GMM; EconLit; exchange rate elasticity; trade surplus; TSSCI; 動態一般化動差模型; 匯率彈性; 貿易餘額
• ISSN: 1018-3833
• DOI: 10.6277/TER.201809_46(3).0001

This study examines the influence of the RMB fluctuations on trade in primary, intermediate, and final goods between China and its 49 major trading partners over the period 1992-2009. The empirical result shows that the sensitivity of trade to the exchange rate varies substantially for different commodities. Overall, China's exports are less sensitive to the exchange rate than imports. Counterintuitively, we find that RMB appreciation reduces China's intermediate goods imports. A possible reason is that the appreciation harms its final goods exports in the assembly sector, thus indirectly lowering the demand for the required intermediate goods imports. This finding, along with the finding that final goods exports, the major source of the trade surplus, are not sensitive to exchange rate changes, are probably the main reasons why RMB appreciation has a limited effect on restraining China's rising surplus.