Determination of the Degree of Impact of Natural Disasters on the Level of Migration of the Population by Simulation Modelling

• Main Authors: Lobkov, Konstantin, Eremeev, Dmitrij, Rubinskaya, Anastasia, Melnikova, Elena, Panfilov, Ilya
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Subjects: analysis; Earthquakes; Human factors; Hurricanes; level of migration; natural disasters; Seismic measurements; Simulation modelling; Sociology; Urban areas; Visualization
• ISSN: 2767-9470
• DOI: 10.1109/INFOTEH57020.2023.10094109

In this article the program for simulation of "PowerSim" was used. It built a simulation-dynamic model to measure the impact of natural disasters on people and migration levels. Three types of natural disasters were considered: hurricane, fire and earthquakes. The necessary constants for the operation of models have been identified, as well as models of the impact of various natural disasters on urban damage have been built. General models have been developed to illustrate the groups of factors influencing the destruction of the housing sector, including the population sector. For the ability to change results, constant switches were added to regulate earthquake severity, fire severity and hurricane strength. A graph has been constructed that can be used to visualize the number of destroyed houses from various natural disasters. The results were analyzed, on the basis of which four graphs were constructed: percentage of population growth, population, population, proportion of built-up land, in addition to graphs: table of calculation and emigration. In the course of the work, it was determined that the model was suitable for calculating the population size taking into account natural disasters.