Vaffel - a tool for forecasting transmission line failures based on Bayesian updating, renalysis data and medium range weather forecasts

This paper presents a method for forecasting the probability of weather-related transmission line failures. The method combines failure statistics, a Bayesian updating scheme and reanalysis weather data to produce fragility curves that model the relationship between weather exposure for a component...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Solheim, Oystein Rognes, Ligaarden, Ingeborg, Hoverstad, Boye Annfelt, Trotscher, Thomas, Andersen, Markus, Korpas, Magnus
Format: Conference Proceeding
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayes methods
bayesian methods
Data models
forecasting
fragility curves
Power system reliability
Power transmission lines
Probabilistic logic
probabilistic reliability
Reliability
Weather forecasting
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Summary:This paper presents a method for forecasting the probability of weather-related transmission line failures. The method combines failure statistics, a Bayesian updating scheme and reanalysis weather data to produce fragility curves that model the relationship between weather exposure for a component and the probability of failure. The fragility curves are combined with medium range weather forecasts extracted at each span of the individual transmission lines to obtain a forecast of the hourly probability of failure for each line. A tool that implements the method has been developed and is currently being tested operationally within the Norwegian TSO Statnett. We show the data requirements and demonstrate the use of a dashboard that expose the forecasts to an end-user.
ISSN:2642-6757
DOI:10.1109/PMAPS61648.2024.10667068