National Salt Supply and Demand Forecast Using Dynamic System Modelling

• Main Authors: Kristanto, Titus, Saikhu, Ahmad, Amaliah, Bilqis
• Format: Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Subjects: Biological system modeling; Computational modeling; Error analysis; Forecasting; National Salt; Predictive models; Production; Supply and demand; Supply and Demand System Dynamic; System dynamics
• ISSN: 2769-5492
• DOI: 10.1109/ISITIA63062.2024.10667680

Salt plays a significant role in everyday life and a number of industrial sectors, including the food, chemical, and cosmetic industries. The supply and demand for salt have a big impact on an economy's stability. As a result, understanding the variables influencing a nation's salt demand and supply is essential to preserving stability in the salt price and supply. Every year, there is a growing need for salt, which is met by salt production. The primary reasons behind Indonesia's high national price of salt at the time are the country's need for salt, its important, and its poor quality. The development of a national model for projecting salt supply and demand is the research's contribution. Because it can aid in modelling and forecasting the intricate dynamics that take place in the national salt supply and demand cycle, this study employs a dynamic systems approach. The variables "salt import demand," "salt production demand," and "salt needs" are utilized in dynamic system modelling. The results obtainedfom analyzing the three variables show that the error variance value (E2) is ≤ 30% and the mean comparison value (E1) is ≤ 5%.