A Research and Development Decision Model Incorporating Utility Theory and Measurement of Social Values

In the research and development environment, the classical decision model, even though modified to include multiple objectives or attributes, fails in the following ways. 1) It uses linear attribute weighting functions. 2) It does not incorporate uncertainty distributions in estimates of total value...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IEEE transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics man, and cybernetics, 1976-06, Vol.SMC-6 (6), p.400-410
Main Authors: Litchfield, James W., Hansen, James V., Beck, Larry C.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analytical models
Decision making
Decision theory
Information analysis
Probability
Radioactive pollution
Research and development
Uncertainty
Utility theory
Waste management
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Summary:In the research and development environment, the classical decision model, even though modified to include multiple objectives or attributes, fails in the following ways. 1) It uses linear attribute weighting functions. 2) It does not incorporate uncertainty distributions in estimates of total value and attribute attainment. 3) It does not facilitate group decision making. A computer-assisted decision model has been developed to utilize decision analysis information more effectively. A hypothetical analysis of advanced nuclear waste management alternatives illustrates its application. A simulation technique predicts the preferred decision based on estimates of attribute levels, utility functions, and an evaluation of the relative importance of the attributes.
ISSN:0018-9472
2168-2909
DOI:10.1109/TSMC.1976.4309517