Appraisal of airport alternatives in greenland by the use of risk analysis and monte carlo simulation

This paper presents an appraisal study of three different airport proposals in Greenland by the use of an adapted version of the Danish CBA-DK model. The assessment model is based on both a deterministic calculation by the use of conventional cost-benefit analysis and a stochastic calculation, where...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Salling, Kim Bang, Leleur, Steen
Format: Conference Proceeding
Language:English
Subjects:
Air transportation
Airports
Appraisal
Cost benefit analysis
Probability distribution
Proposals
Risk analysis
Stochastic processes
Traffic control
Uncertainty
Online Access:Request full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:This paper presents an appraisal study of three different airport proposals in Greenland by the use of an adapted version of the Danish CBA-DK model. The assessment model is based on both a deterministic calculation by the use of conventional cost-benefit analysis and a stochastic calculation, where risk analysis is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility risk adopted in the model is based on assigning probability distributions to the uncertain model parameters. Two probability distributions are presented, the Erlang and normal distribution respectively assigned to the construction cost and the travel time savings. The obtained model results aim to provide an input to informed decision-making based on an account of the level of desired risk as concerns feasibility risks. This level is presented as the probability of obtaining at least a benefit- cost ratio of a specified value. Finally, some conclusions and a perspective are presented.
ISSN:0891-7736
1558-4305
DOI:10.1109/WSC.2007.4419828