Predicting onsets of genocide with sparse additive models

Prevention of genocide is one of the most important challenges before the international community. In this paper we apply recent machine learning techniques to forecast the onset of political instability and genocide. Specifically, we employ sparse additive models which are both flexible and maintai...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Semenovich, D., Sowmya, A., Goldsmith, B. E.
Format: Conference Proceeding
Language:English
Subjects:
Additives
Casting
Educational institutions
Forecasting
Logistics
Predictive models
Online Access:Request full text
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Summary:Prevention of genocide is one of the most important challenges before the international community. In this paper we apply recent machine learning techniques to forecast the onset of political instability and genocide. Specifically, we employ sparse additive models which are both flexible and maintain interpretability of the results. Our model demonstrates a reasonable degree of forecasting performance over the hold-out period 1988-2003.
ISSN:1051-4651
2831-7475