Appreciating Wind Energy's Probabilistic Nature within the Uncertainty Context of Electric Power System Network Planning

Electric power system network planning is influenced by the uncertainty in many parameters, such as future customer-demand/fossil-fuel-price parameter projections and new generation plant locations, which can generally be modeled in an approximate or subjective manner at best. Historically recorded...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Burke, Daniel J., O'Malley, M.J.
Format: Conference Proceeding
Language:English
Subjects:
Biological system modeling
Planning
Power systems
Probabilistic logic
Uncertainty
Wind
Wind power generation
Online Access:Request full text
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Summary:Electric power system network planning is influenced by the uncertainty in many parameters, such as future customer-demand/fossil-fuel-price parameter projections and new generation plant locations, which can generally be modeled in an approximate or subjective manner at best. Historically recorded wind power data presented here supports the contention that medium-term wind power generation profiles tend to follow more stable probability distributions. While it is widely acknowledged that the addition of wind power to a system makes network investment analysis more difficult in some respects, such data patterns nevertheless evoke an important discussion on how this relatively more probabilistic (i.e. not uncertain) characteristic of wind power may have some positive value for transmission planning and its related decision making procedures.
ISSN:1530-1605
2572-6862
DOI:10.1109/HICSS.2013.98