Forecasting model for the solar photovoltaics consumption in United States of America

Sunlight is the most abundant energy resource for human beings. Solar photovoltaics is a green energy which is playing a critical role in helping many countries fight against climate change, ensure enough supply for power security, and reduce their dependency on energy imports. Thus, it is considere...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Thanh-Lam Nguyen, Ying-Fang Huang, Ming-Hung Shu, Bi-Min Hsu
Format: Conference Proceeding
Language:English
Subjects:
ARIMA model
energy consumption
FARIMA
Fourier modification
Online Access:Request full text
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Summary:Sunlight is the most abundant energy resource for human beings. Solar photovoltaics is a green energy which is playing a critical role in helping many countries fight against climate change, ensure enough supply for power security, and reduce their dependency on energy imports. Thus, it is considered important to build a good statistical model to forecast the consumption amount so that relevant authorities can create proper policies for the stable development of this green industry. In this study, a new forecasting model named FARINA was proposed by combining the Fourier residual modification with the traditional FARINA forecasting model. In the case of forecasting the solar energy consumption in the United States of Amercia, FARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)11 model has a very low value of the mean absolute percentage error (NAPE) of 0.08% and this model is strongly suggested to do the forecasting.
ISSN:1947-1262
1947-1270
DOI:10.1109/ASSCC.2012.6523279