Forecasting a sharp change in traffic intensity by analysis of the third derivative of growth function of incoming requests

The article proposes a method for predicting sudden changes in the intensity of traffic entering a switching node. It is based on monitoring the nature of the input process third derivative, which is usually specified by the number of incoming requests per unit of time. If obtaining an analytical ex...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of physics. Conference series 2019-10, Vol.1333 (3), p.32058
Main Authors: Goichman, V Y, Levakov, A K, Sokolov, N A, Nikolaeva, M V
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algorithms
Kinematics
Physics
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The article proposes a method for predicting sudden changes in the intensity of traffic entering a switching node. It is based on monitoring the nature of the input process third derivative, which is usually specified by the number of incoming requests per unit of time. If obtaining an analytical expression for the function of incoming requests is not possible, then the change in the finite differences of the third order should be controlled. The method used is an example of interdisciplinary approach, since an analogue of the third derivative in kinematics is the process called "jerk". The proposed approach allows predicting a sharp increase in traffic and making decisions to support an acceptable quality of service. In particular, the control of the third derivative can be used in conjunction with the procedures of hysteresis control and algorithms for restricting traffic, which increases dramatically with the response of telecommunication network subscribers to extraordinary events.
ISSN:1742-6588
1742-6596
DOI:10.1088/1742-6596/1333/3/032058