Effects of Movement Control Order on mitigating spread of COVID-19 in the early phase of the outbreak in Malaysia

We propose a mathematical model to investigate the early outbreak of COVID-19 in Malaysia. The model emphasizes the role of the government’s Movement Control Orders (MCOs) as population-wide lockdown measures and the potential benefit of mass testing on disease spread. We fit this model to the repor...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of physics. Conference series 2021-07, Vol.1988 (1), p.12009
Main Authors: Yatim, Siti Ainor Mohd, Kim, Peter S
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease transmission
Mathematical models
Outbreaks
Parameter estimation
Viral diseases
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Summary:We propose a mathematical model to investigate the early outbreak of COVID-19 in Malaysia. The model emphasizes the role of the government’s Movement Control Orders (MCOs) as population-wide lockdown measures and the potential benefit of mass testing on disease spread. We fit this model to the reported active COVID-19 cases to estimate model parameters. We also assume transmission rates change with respect to stages of MCOs and compare the differences in rates to assess the effectiveness of different levels of MCO restrictions. The estimated parameters match the observed data well, and our results suggest a slowing of the trajectory of COVID-19 outbreak in the country, indicating that the series of MCOs taken to counter COVID-19 transmission are having a significant positive effect.
ISSN:1742-6588
1742-6596
DOI:10.1088/1742-6596/1988/1/012009