An Assessment of Convective Initiation Nowcasting Algorithm within 0-60 Minutes using Himawari-8 Satellite

Convective cloud monitoring since its growth stage primarily related to location and time of the first convective cloud initiated, called convective initiation (CI), could be the primary key in providing an earlier heavy rainfall event prediction. This study aimed to assess the accuracy and lead tim...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IOP conference series. Earth and environmental science 2021-11, Vol.893 (1), p.12049
Main Authors: Perdana, I F P, Septiadi, D
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Algorithms
Cloud physics
Convection
Convective clouds
convective initiation
Cooling rate
Glaciation
Glaciology
Growth stage
Himawari-8
Lead time
Meteorological radar
Meteorological satellites
Nowcasting
Predictions
Rainfall
SATCAST
Satellite tracking
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Summary:Convective cloud monitoring since its growth stage primarily related to location and time of the first convective cloud initiated, called convective initiation (CI), could be the primary key in providing an earlier heavy rainfall event prediction. This study aimed to assess the accuracy and lead time of CI nowcasting using Satellite Convection Analysis and Tracking (SATCAST) algorithm in predicting the CI event within 0-60 minutes over Surabaya and surrounding area using Himawari-8 satellite during June-July-August (JJA) period in 2018. Three main processes used in this study were cloud masking, cloud object tracking, and CI nowcasting. Twelve interest fields were utilized as predictors based on six bands of Himawari-8 satellite, which represented cloud physics attributes such as cloud-top height, glaciation, or cooling rate. The verification was conducted by comparing CI prediction to CI location and time based on Surabaya weather radar within the next 0-60 minutes. The algorithm resulted that the prediction could achieve 87.3% of accuracy from the 3449 cloud objects. The prediction had POD, FAR, and CSI scores of 57.1%, 52.2%, and 35.2%, respectively. The 32.3 minutes of averaged lead time prediction indicated that CI nowcasting could detect growing cumulus about 30 minutes prior to the CI event.
ISSN:1755-1307
1755-1315
DOI:10.1088/1755-1315/893/1/012049