Method for determining effectiveness of prediction of failure of elements of pipeline systems

The importance and relevance of the development of effective methods for predicting the state of pipeline systems are substantiated. The set of analyzed parameters, containing both deterministic and random components, and being the functions of time is presented as a vector-column. As an indicator o...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IOP conference series. Materials Science and Engineering 2018-12, Vol.451 (1), p.12098
Main Authors: Kononova, M S, Vorobyeva, Y A, Kononov, A A
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accident detection
Algorithms
Forecasting
Pipelines
System effectiveness
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The importance and relevance of the development of effective methods for predicting the state of pipeline systems are substantiated. The set of analyzed parameters, containing both deterministic and random components, and being the functions of time is presented as a vector-column. As an indicator of the effectiveness of accident detection, the conditional probabilities of correct detection or omission of a hazard are offered. The formulas and the algorithm of two-alternative detection of emergency situations in pipeline systems are given. It is proposed to use the average risk of forecasting errors, which is the expectation of the average "fee" for the error, as a general indicator of the forecasting efficiency.
ISSN:1757-8981
1757-899X
1757-899X
DOI:10.1088/1757-899X/451/1/012098