Application of systems analysis in modelling the risk of bovine spongiform encephalopathy BSE

• Published in: Kybernetes 2002-12, Vol.31 (9/10), p.1380-1390
• Main Authors: Habtemariam, T., Tameru, B., Nganwa, D., Ayanwale, L., Ahmed, A., Oryang, D., AbdelRahman, H., Gray, G., Cohen, J., Kreindel, S.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bovine spongiform encephalopathy; Cybernetics; Modelling; Risk
• ISSN: 0368-492X
• DOI: 10.1108/03684920210443581

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy BSE, widely known as mad cow disease, has virtually crippled the British livestock industry. Even though, no cases of BSE have been reported in the United States US, a similar epidemic in the US would be catastrophic. The added concern for the risk of introduction of the human disease called variant CreutzfeldtJacob disease that has been linked to eating meat of BSE infected cattle compounds the risk of BSE. Systems dynamics models based on the underlying transmission pathways of BSE can help to anticipate the spread of this disease in different cattle populations and assist in the evaluation of potential risk mitigations for preventing its introduction or controlling its spread if it was introduced. With this in mind, an age and health status structured systems dynamics model was developed. By making assumptions and setting up feasible scenarios, the model can be used to examine potential prevalence and incidences rates of BSE the effect of mitigations including changes in feeding habits or rendering processes andor other policies and regulations designed to prevent the introduction of BSE. The systems dynamics simulation model enabled us to create virtual experiments whose realworld analogues would otherwise be expensive, dangerous, or even impossible to carryout.