Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea–level rise under climate change

Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences physical, and engineering sciences, 2002-07, Vol.360 (1796), p.1301-1311
Main Authors: Senior, C. A., Jones, R. G., Lowe, J. A., Durman, C. F., Hudson, D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Altitude
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Computer Simulation
Disasters
Ecosystem
Environmental Monitoring
Extreme Precipitation
Forecasting
Global Climate Change
Hydrological modeling
International environmental cooperation
IPCC
Marine
Modeling
Models, Theoretical
Oceans and Seas
Precipitation
Rain
Sea level
Sea level rise
Seawater
Simulations
South Africa
Statistics as Topic
United Kingdom
Water Movements
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Summary:Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), using the Hadley Centre models. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation, sea-level rise and storm surges affecting the UK will be shown from the Hadley Centre regional models and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory storm-surge model. A common finding from AOGCMs is that in a warmer climate the intensity of precipitation will increase due to a more intense hydrological cycle. This leads to reduced return periods (i.e. more frequent occurrences) of extreme precipitation in many locations. The Hadley Centre regional model simulates reduced return periods of extreme precipitation in a number of flood-sensitive areas of the UK. In addition, simulated changes in storminess and a rise in average sea level around the UK lead to reduced return periods of extreme high coastal water events. The confidence in all these results is limited by poor spatial resolution in global coupled models and by uncertainties in the physical processes in both global and regional models, and is specific to the climate change scenario used.
ISSN:1364-503X
1471-2962
DOI:10.1098/rsta.2002.1001