Control of a highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in the GB poultry flock

The identification of H5N1 in domestic poultry in Europe has increased the risk of infection reaching most industrialized poultry populations. Here, using detailed data on the poultry population in Great Britain (GB), we show that currently planned interventions based on movement restrictions can be...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the Royal Society. B, Biological sciences Biological sciences, 2007-09, Vol.274 (1623), p.2287-2295
Main Authors: Truscott, James, Garske, Tini, Chis-Ster, Irina, Guitian, Javier, Pfeiffer, Dirk, Snow, Lucy, Wilesmith, John, Ferguson, Neil M, Ghani, Azra C
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Avian Influenza
Birds
Chickens
Control Strategies
Disease Outbreaks - veterinary
Disease transmission
Epidemics
H5N1 subtype influenza A virus
Influenza A virus
Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype - pathogenicity
Influenza in Birds - epidemiology
Influenza in Birds - etiology
Influenza in Birds - prevention & control
Livestock industries
Materials
Modeling
Modelling
Poultry - virology
United Kingdom - epidemiology
Vaccination
Vaccination - veterinary
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Summary:The identification of H5N1 in domestic poultry in Europe has increased the risk of infection reaching most industrialized poultry populations. Here, using detailed data on the poultry population in Great Britain (GB), we show that currently planned interventions based on movement restrictions can be expected to control the majority of outbreaks. The probability that controls fail to keep an outbreak small only rises to significant levels if most transmission occurs via mechanisms which are both untraceable and largely independent of the local density of premises. We show that a predictor of the need to intensify control efforts in GB is whether an outbreak exceeds 20 infected premises. In such a scenario neither localized reactive vaccination nor localized culling are likely to have a substantial impact. The most effective of these contingent interventions are large radius (10 km) localized culling and national vaccination. However, the modest impact of these approaches must be balanced against their substantial inconvenience and cost.
ISSN:0962-8452
1471-2954
DOI:10.1098/rspb.2007.0542