Suspense and Surprise

We model demand for noninstrumental information, drawing on the idea that people derive entertainment utility from suspense and surprise. A period has more suspense if the variance of the next period’s beliefs is greater. A period has more surprise if the current belief is further from the last peri...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Journal of political economy 2015-02, Vol.123 (1), p.215-260
Main Authors: Ely, Jeffrey, Frankel, Alexander, Kamenica, Emir
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Auctions
Bayesian method
Belief networks
Economic models
Economic theory
Entertainment
Information policy
Literature
Martingales
Murderers
Political economy
Seeding
Soccer
Sports
Studies
Surprise
Tennis
Utility functions
Utility theory
Variance analysis
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Summary:We model demand for noninstrumental information, drawing on the idea that people derive entertainment utility from suspense and surprise. A period has more suspense if the variance of the next period’s beliefs is greater. A period has more surprise if the current belief is further from the last period’s belief. Under these definitions, we analyze the optimal way to reveal information over time so as to maximize expected suspense or surprise experienced by a Bayesian audience. We apply our results to the design of mystery novels, political primaries, casinos, game shows, auctions, and sports.
ISSN:0022-3808
1537-534X
DOI:10.1086/677350