Eliciting Factor Importance in a Designed Experiment

Recently, there has been great interest in the Bayes model for analyzing confounded designs. This model suggests that only a few of the main effects and interactions are "active" and estimates the posterior probability that a given factor is active. This article proposes using pairwise com...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Technometrics 2001-05, Vol.43 (2), p.133-146
Main Authors: Grimshaw, Scott D, Collings, Bruce J, Larsen, Wayne A, Hurt, Carolyn R
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian analysis
Brainstorming
Design
Design analysis
Design engineering
Engineers
Experiment design
Graph theory
Graphics
Graphs
Guns
Pairwise comparisons
Pigments
Ranking
Refueling
Schedules
Screening designs
Software
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Recently, there has been great interest in the Bayes model for analyzing confounded designs. This model suggests that only a few of the main effects and interactions are "active" and estimates the posterior probability that a given factor is active. This article proposes using pairwise comparisons to elicit an expert's opinion and form a well-defined, coherent prior. The prior probability that a factor is active is modeled as a "preference" in the Bradley-Terry linear model for pairwise comparisons. This article provides suggested schedules that minimize the number of comparisons offered to the expert based on the expression of a comparison schedule as a graph theory problem. Examples demonstrate that an expert's knowledge can be obtained to adequate precision for the Bayes analysis of screening designs by asking a few simple questions.
ISSN:0040-1706
1537-2723
DOI:10.1198/004017001750386251