Zur voraussichtlichen Entwicklung des Produktionspotentials in Deutschland

German real GDP has increased significantly less over the past decade than in the two decades before. This paper argues that this is not only an indication of low aggregate capacity utilisation but also of a slowdown of potential output growth. We show that this slowdown is primarily related to a de...

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Published in:Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Review of Economics 2005-01, Vol.56 (1), p.45-70
Main Authors: Meier, Carsten-Patrick, Oskamp, Frank, Kamps, Christophe
Format: Article
Language:ger
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:German real GDP has increased significantly less over the past decade than in the two decades before. This paper argues that this is not only an indication of low aggregate capacity utilisation but also of a slowdown of potential output growth. We show that this slowdown is primarily related to a decline of labor productivity growth. Total labor input decreased over the past ten years or so, but it did not fall faster than in the decades before. We analyse which factors may have caused the decline in productivity growth. Together with demographic projections and considering the recent labor market reforms, we use the results of our analysis to generate a projection for potential output growth in Germany until the end of the decade. With about 1 percent, the projected growth rate will remain rather low.
ISSN:0948-5139