Statistical Modeling Methodology for the Voting Rights Act Section 203 Language Assistance Determinations

• Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association 2014-03, Vol.109 (505), p.36-47
• Main Authors: Joyce, Patrick M., Malec, Donald, Little, Roderick J. A., Gilary, Aaron, Navarro, Alfredo, Asiala, Mark E.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: American Community Survey; Applications and Case Studies; Bayesian methods; Binomials; Censuses; Citizenship; Decennial Census; education; English language; Estimation methods; Jurisdiction; Language minorities; languages; minorities (people); Minority & ethnic groups; politics; Sample size; Small-area estimation; Statistical discrepancies; Statistical methods; Statistical models; Statistics; surveys; Voting age; Voting Rights Act
• ISSN: 1537-274X; 0162-1459; 1537-274X
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2013.859077

Section 203 of the Voting Rights Act includes provisions requiring the use of election materials in languages other than English for states or political subdivisions, specifically, when a minimum number of voting age U.S. citizens of specified language minority groups who are unable to speak English very well and have obtained less than a fifth-grade education is met. Data on these characteristics are provided by the 2010 Census and the American Community Survey (ACS), a general purpose sample survey designed to produce a large volume of estimates across the spectrum of the nation's geographic areas and subgroups of the population. This article describes the small-area model and the estimation methods that were developed and applied to create the list of 2011 political subdivisions that were subject to the provisions.