LOOKING FOR LOCAL LABOR MARKET EFFECTS OF NAFTA

Using U.S. Census data for 1990 to 2000, we estimate effects of NAFTA on U.S. wages. We look for effects of the agreement by industry and by geography, measuring each industry's vulnerability to Mexican imports and each locality's dependence on vulnerable industries. We find evidence of bo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The review of economics and statistics 2016-10, Vol.98 (4), p.728-741
Main Authors: Hakobyan, Shushanik, McLaren, John
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Impact analysis
Imports
Labor market
Labour market
North American Free Trade Agreement
Studies
United States
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Summary:Using U.S. Census data for 1990 to 2000, we estimate effects of NAFTA on U.S. wages. We look for effects of the agreement by industry and by geography, measuring each industry's vulnerability to Mexican imports and each locality's dependence on vulnerable industries. We find evidence of both effects, dramatically lowering wage growth for blue-collar workers in the most affected industries and localities (even for service-sector workers in affected localities, whose jobs do not compete with imports). These distributional effects are much larger than aggregate welfare effects estimated by other authors.
ISSN:0034-6535
1530-9142
DOI:10.1162/rest_a_00587