Estimation of Fetal Growth and Gestation in Bowhead Whales

We address estimating fetal growth and gestation for bowhead whales of the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas stock. This population is subject to a subsistence hunt by Eskimo whale hunters, which is monitored via a quota system established by the International Whaling Commission. Quota determinatio...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of the American Statistical Association 2001-09, Vol.96 (455), p.915-938
Main Authors: Reese, C. Shane, Calvin, James A, George, John C, Tarpley, Raymond J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applications and Case Studies
Bayes theorem
Conception
Data ranges
Estimation
Fetus
Foetus
Gestation period
Hierarchical models
Markov chain Monte Carlo
Markovian processes
Monte Carlo simulation
Newborns
Parametric models
Parturition
Pregnancy
Random curves
Statistical methods
Statistics
Whales
Whaling
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Summary:We address estimating fetal growth and gestation for bowhead whales of the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas stock. This population is subject to a subsistence hunt by Eskimo whale hunters, which is monitored via a quota system established by the International Whaling Commission. Quota determination is assisted by biological information, such as fetal growth and gestation, which is the basis of a population dynamics model used to estimate the annual replacement yield of the stock. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical nonlinear model for fetal growth with computation carried out via Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Our model allows for unique conception and parturition dates and provides predictive distributions for gestation length and conception dates. These results are used to propose estimates of geographic locations for conception and parturition. A sensitivity analysis indicated caution when specifying some hyperparameters related to growth rate, conception dates, and parturition dates.
ISSN:0162-1459
1537-274X
DOI:10.1198/016214501753208618