Using Statistical and Computer Models to Quantify Volcanic Hazards

• Published in: Technometrics 2009-11, Vol.51 (4), p.402-413
• Main Authors: Bayarri, M. J., Berger, James O., Calder, Eliza S., Dalbey, Keith, Lunagomez, Simon, Patra, Abani K., Pitman, E. Bruce, Spiller, Elaine T., Wolpert, Robert L.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bayesian analysis; Catastrophic events; Computer modeling; Disasters; Emulators; Experiment design; Extreme events; Inverse problems; Mass flow; Modeling; Probabilities; Pyroclastic flows; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Simulation; Statistical methods; Statistical models; Volcanic domes; Volcanoes
• ISSN: 0040-1706; 1537-2723
• DOI: 10.1198/TECH.2009.08018

Risk assessment of rare natural hazards, such as large volcanic block and ash or pyroclastic flows, is addressed. Assessment is approached through a combination of computer modeling, statistical modeling, and extreme-event probability computation. A computer model of the natural hazard is used to provide the needed extrapolation to unseen parts of the hazard space. Statistical modeling of the available data is needed to determine the initializing distribution for exercising the computer model. In dealing with rare events, direct simulations involving the computer model are prohibitively expensive. The solution instead requires a combination of adaptive design of computer model approximations (emulators) and rare event simulation. The techniques that are developed for risk assessment are illustrated on a test-bed example involving volcanic flow.