Intercomparison of Soil Moisture, Evaporative Stress, and Vegetation Indices for Estimating Corn and Soybean Yields Over the U.S

• Published in: IEEE journal of selected topics in applied earth observations and remote sensing 2017-04, Vol.10 (4), p.1328-1343
• Main Authors: Mladenova, Iliana E., Bolten, John D., Crow, Wade T., Anderson, Martha C., Hain, Christopher R., Johnson, David M., Mueller, Rick
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Agriculture; Corn; Correlation; crop assessment; Crop production; Crop yield; Crops; Data collection; Datasets; Earth Resources And Remote Sensing; Evapotranspiration; evapotranspiration (ET); Growing season; Hydrologic models; Hydrology; Intercomparison; national agricultural statistics service (NASS); Normalized difference vegetative index; Polls & surveys; Production; Remote sensing; Satellites; Seasons; Soil; Soil moisture; Soil stresses; soybean; Soybeans; Stress; Surveying; Variability; Vegetables; Vegetation; Vegetation index; Vegetation mapping; Water availability; water deficiency; Water heating; yield forecasting; Zea mays
• ISSN: 1939-1404; 2151-1535
• DOI: 10.1109/JSTARS.2016.2639338

This paper presents an intercomparative study of 12 operationally produced large-scale datasets describing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), and/or vegetation characteristics within agricultural regions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). These datasets have been developed using a variety of techniques, including, hydrologic modeling, satellite-based retrievals, data assimilation, and survey/in-field data collection. The objectives are to assess the relative utility of each dataset for monitoring crop yield variability, to quantitatively assess their capacity for predicting end-of-season corn and soybean yields, and to examine the evolution of the yield-index correlations during the growing season. This analysis is unique both with regards to the number and variety of examined yield predictor datasets and the detailed assessment of the water availability timing on the end-of-season crop production during the growing season. Correlation results indicate that over CONUS, at state-level soil moisture and ET indices can provide better information for forecasting corn and soybean yields than vegetation-based indices such as normalized difference vegetation index. The strength of correlation with corn and soybean yields strongly depends on the interannual variability in yield measured at a given location. In this case study, some of the remotely derived datasets examined provide skill comparable to that of in-situ field survey-based data-further demonstrating the utility of these remote sensing-based approaches for estimating crop yield.