Post-TPP Trade Policy Options for ASEAN and its Dialogue Partners: "Preference Ordering" Using CGE Analysis

Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his "America First" trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP ga...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:East Asian economic review 2018, 22(2), 63, pp.177-215
Main Authors: Ji, Xianbai, Rana, Pradumna B., Chia, Wai-Mun, Li, Changtai
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
CGE Modelling
Comparative analysis
Cooperation
CPTPP
Economic growth
Economic models
Equilibrium
Free trade
FTAAP
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
International trade
Negotiations
Partnerships
Post-TPP
Productivity
RCEP
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
Regionalism
Tariffs
Trade agreements
Trade liberalization
Trade policy
Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement
Trump, Donald J
경제학
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Summary:Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his "America First" trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct "preference ordering" for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a "multi-track, multi-stage" approach to trade policy.
ISSN:2508-1640
2234-8867
2508-1667
2287-8793
DOI:10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.2.342