Lifetime data modelling and reliability analysis based on modified weibull extension distribution and Bayesian approach

Satellite reliability has long been a critical issue in space industry. In-orbit lifetime data modelling and the corresponding reliability analysis are indispensable aspects for satellite reliability. However, limited by available in-orbit lifetime data, these two aspects have not been well studied....

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of mechanical science and technology 2018, 32(11), , pp.5121-5126
Main Authors: Yang, Yuan-Jian, Wang, Wenhe, Zhang, Xin-Yin, Xiong, Ya-Lan, Wang, Gui-Hua
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian analysis
Control
Dynamical Systems
Engineering
Failure rates
Industrial and Production Engineering
Mechanical Engineering
Modelling
Reliability analysis
Reliability aspects
Satellites
Vibration
기계공학
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Summary:Satellite reliability has long been a critical issue in space industry. In-orbit lifetime data modelling and the corresponding reliability analysis are indispensable aspects for satellite reliability. However, limited by available in-orbit lifetime data, these two aspects have not been well studied. Aiming to mitigate this limitation, we conduct a coherent research on satellite reliability analysis based on an in-orbit database of 1584 satellites. A nonparametric reliability analysis is firstly implemented on the data set to identify the characteristics of failure rate. Then, the modified Weibull extension distribution is used to model the satellite reliability. Point estimation and interval estimation are carried out by utilizing a Bayesian method. Posterior distributions of model parameters are obtained and reserved for further reliability analysis of newly launched satellites. The results presented in this paper can provide helpful information to the space industry for design improvement and test planning of new satellites.
ISSN:1738-494X
1976-3824
DOI:10.1007/s12206-018-1009-8