Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways

In this paper, we discuss the results of 2000–2100 simulations following the emissions associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with a chemistry-climate model, focusing on the changes in 1) atmospheric composition (troposphere and stratosphere) and 2) associated environmental...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2011-11, Vol.109 (1-2), p.191-212
Main Authors: Lamarque, Jean-François, Kyle, G. Page, Meinshausen, Malte, Riahi, Keywan, Smith, Steven J., van Vuuren, Detlef P., Conley, Andrew J., Vitt, Francis
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
21st century
AEROSOLS
Anthropogenic factors
Atmospheric chemistry
Atmospheric composition
Atmospheric Sciences
Carbon cycle
Chemistry
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate models
Concentration (composition)
DEPOSITION
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Emissions
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
FOCUSING
GASES
Greenhouse gases
NITROGEN
Oxidation
OZONE
Pathways
REFLECTION
Simulation
Spreads
STRATOSPHERE
SULFATES
TROPOSPHERE
VOCs
Volatile organic compounds
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Summary:In this paper, we discuss the results of 2000–2100 simulations following the emissions associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with a chemistry-climate model, focusing on the changes in 1) atmospheric composition (troposphere and stratosphere) and 2) associated environmental parameters (such as nitrogen deposition). In particular, we find that tropospheric ozone is projected to decrease (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6) or increase (RCP8.5) between 2000 and 2100, with variations in methane a strong contributor to this spread. The associated tropospheric ozone global radiative forcing is shown to be in agreement with the estimate used in the RCPs, except for RCP8.5. Surface ozone in 2100 is projected to change little compared from its 2000 distribution, a much-reduced impact from previous projections based on the A2 high-emission scenario. In addition, globally-averaged stratospheric ozone is projected to recover at or beyond pre-1980 levels. Anthropogenic aerosols are projected to strongly decrease in the 21st century, a reflection of their projected decrease in emissions. Consequently, sulfate deposition is projected to strongly decrease. However, nitrogen deposition is projected to increase over certain regions because of the projected increase in NH 3 emissions.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-011-0155-0