Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set

Recent developments in observational near‐surface air temperature and sea‐surface temperature analyses are combined to produce HadCRUT4, a new data set of global and regional temperature evolution from 1850 to the present. This includes the addition of newly digitized measurement data, both over lan...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Geophysical Research 2012-04, Vol.117 (D8), p.n/a
Main Authors: Morice, Colin P., Kennedy, John J., Rayner, Nick A., Jones, Phil D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air temperature
Atmospheric sciences
climate
Climate change
Climate science
Earth
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Exact sciences and technology
Geophysics
historical temperature
near surface temperature
observational ensemble
Regions
Sea surface temperature
Temperature measurement
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Summary:Recent developments in observational near‐surface air temperature and sea‐surface temperature analyses are combined to produce HadCRUT4, a new data set of global and regional temperature evolution from 1850 to the present. This includes the addition of newly digitized measurement data, both over land and sea, new sea‐surface temperature bias adjustments and a more comprehensive error model for describing uncertainties in sea‐surface temperature measurements. An ensemble approach has been adopted to better describe complex temporal and spatial interdependencies of measurement and bias uncertainties and to allow these correlated uncertainties to be taken into account in studies that are based upon HadCRUT4. Climate diagnostics computed from the gridded data set broadly agree with those of other global near‐surface temperature analyses. Fitted linear trends in temperature anomalies are approximately 0.07°C/decade from 1901 to 2010 and 0.17°C/decade from 1979 to 2010 globally. Northern/southern hemispheric trends are 0.08/0.07°C/decade over 1901 to 2010 and 0.24/0.10°C/decade over 1979 to 2010. Linear trends in other prominent near‐surface temperature analyses agree well with the range of trends computed from the HadCRUT4 ensemble members. Key Points Updated version of a global temperature data set An ensemble approach is adopted to describe correlated uncertainties Improved estimates of uncertainty in global and regional temperature timeseries
ISSN:0148-0227
2169-897X
2156-2202
2169-8996
DOI:10.1029/2011JD017187