The relationship between interannual and long-term cloud feedbacks

Analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long‐term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2015-12, Vol.42 (23), p.10,463-10,469
Main Authors: Zhou, Chen, Zelinka, Mark D., Dessler, Andrew E., Klein, Stephen A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Brackish
Climate
Climate change
climate change and variability
Climate models
Cloud cover
cloud feedback
Clouds
Computer simulation
Correlation
Covariance
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Feedback
Fluctuation
GEOSCIENCES
Global warming
Intercomparison
low cloud cover
Marine
Profiles
Sea surface
Sea surface warming
Sensitivity
Surface temperature
Temperature (air-sea)
Time
Vertical profiles
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Summary:Analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long‐term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long‐term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long‐term cloud feedback is smaller than the interannual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual and long‐term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long‐term cloud feedback. The intermodel correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model‐specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming. Key Points Interannual and long‐term cloud feedbacks are well correlated across models Low cloud cover feedback is most responsible for this correlation Low cloud cover sensitivity to thermodynamics partially explains the correlation
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1002/2015GL066698