Uncertainty Propagation in Coupled Atmosphere–Wave–Ocean Prediction System: A Study of Hurricane Earl (2010)

This study focuses on understanding the evolution of Hurricane Earl (2010) with respect to random perturbations in the storm’s initial strength, size, and asymmetry in wind distribution. We rely on the Unified Wave Interface-Coupled Model (UWIN-CM), a fully coupled atmosphere–wave–ocean system to ge...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Monthly weather review 2019-01, Vol.147 (1), p.221-245
Main Authors: Li, Guotu, Curcic, Milan, Iskandarani, Mohamed, Chen, Shuyi S., Knio, Omar M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Asymmetry
Atmosphere
Atmospheric models
Backscatter
Backscattering
Chaos
Computer simulation
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Evolution
Hurricanes
Initial conditions
Kinetic energy
Mathematical models
Ocean circulation
Oceans
Orientation
Perturbations
Polynomials
Probability theory
Sea level
Sea level pressure
Sensitivity analysis
Skewed distributions
Statistical analysis
Statistical methods
Stochasticity
Storm forecasting
Storm tracks
Storms
Studies
Vortices
Wave propagation
Weather
Wind
Wind speed
Winds
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Summary:This study focuses on understanding the evolution of Hurricane Earl (2010) with respect to random perturbations in the storm’s initial strength, size, and asymmetry in wind distribution. We rely on the Unified Wave Interface-Coupled Model (UWIN-CM), a fully coupled atmosphere–wave–ocean system to generate a storm realization ensemble, and use polynomial chaos (PC) expansions to build surrogate models for time evolution of both the maximum wind speed and minimum sea level pressure in Earl. The resulting PC surrogate models provide statistical insights on probability distributions of model responses throughout the simulation time span. Statistical analysis of rapid intensification (RI) suggests that initial perturbations having intensified and counterclockwise-rotated winds are more likely to undergo RI. In addition, for the range of initial conditions considered RI seems mostly sensitive to azimuthally averaged maximum wind speed and asymmetry orientation, rather than storm size and asymmetry magnitude; this is consistent with global sensitivity analysis of PC surrogate models. Finally, we combine initial condition perturbations with a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS) forcing in the UWIN-CM simulations and conclude that the storm tracks are substantially influenced by the SKEBS forcing perturbations, whereas the perturbations in initial conditions alone had only limited impact on the storm-track forecast.
ISSN:0027-0644
1520-0493
DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0371.1