Assessment of wind power scenario creation methods for stochastic power systems operations

•Probabilistic wind power scenario evaluation using performance-based assessments.•Choice of scenario creation method impacts cost, renewable use, and reliability.•Evaluate in operational contexts, as verification metrics miss critical nuance. Probabilistic scenarios of renewable energy production,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Applied energy 2020-06, Vol.268 (C), p.114986, Article 114986
Main Authors: Rachunok, Benjamin, Staid, Andrea, Watson, Jean-Paul, Woodruff, David L.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Engineering - Power transmission and distribution, Mathematics and Computing, Energy - Wind, Energy - Solar
Probabilistic scenarios
Production cost modeling
Scenario creation
Scenario evaluation
Stochastic unit commitment
WIND ENERGY
Wind power
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Summary:•Probabilistic wind power scenario evaluation using performance-based assessments.•Choice of scenario creation method impacts cost, renewable use, and reliability.•Evaluate in operational contexts, as verification metrics miss critical nuance. Probabilistic scenarios of renewable energy production, such as wind, have been gaining popularity for use in stochastic variants of power systems operations scheduling problems, allowing for optimal decision-making under uncertainty. The quality of the scenarios has a direct impact on the value of the resulting decisions, but until now, methods for creating scenarios have not been compared under realistic operational conditions. Here, we compare the quality of scenario sets created using three different methods, based on a simulated re-enactment of stochastic day-ahead unit commitment and subsequent dispatch for a realistic test system. We create scenarios using a dataset of forecasted and actual wind power values, scaled to evaluate the effects of increasing wind penetration levels. We show that the choice of scenario set can significantly impact system operating cost, renewable energy use, and the ability of the system to meet demand. This result has implications for the ability of system operators to efficiently integrate renewable production into their day-ahead planning, highlighting the need for the use of performance-based assessments for scenario evaluation.
ISSN:0306-2619
1872-9118
DOI:10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114986