Comparison of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimates From Slab Ocean, 150‐Year, and Longer Simulations

• Published in: Geophysical research letters 2020-08, Vol.47 (16), p.n/a
• Main Authors: Dunn, John P., Winton, Michael, Bacmeister, Julio, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Gettelman, Andrew, Schmidt, Gavin A., Krasting, John P., Leung, L. Ruby, Nazarenko, Larissa, Sentman, Lori T., Stouffer, Ronald J.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Atmosphere; Atmospheric models; Carbon dioxide; Climate; climate model; Climate models; Climate sensitivity; Computer simulation; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Estimates; Intercomparison; Meteorology And Climatology; Methods; Ocean models; Oceans; Sensitivity enhancement; Simulation
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088852

We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (≥ 800‐year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations with shorter (150, 300 year) coupled atmosphere‐ocean simulations and Slab Ocean Models (SOM). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1‐150 underestimate those from SOM (‐8% ± 13%) and long (‐14% ± 8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21‐150 improved agreement with SOM (‐2% ± 14%) and long (‐8% ± 10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51‐150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (‐4% ± 11%). While ECS estimates from current generation US models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1‐150 range from 2.6°C to 5.3°C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2°C to 7.0°C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.