Comparison of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimates From Slab Ocean, 150‐Year, and Longer Simulations

We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (≥ 800‐year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations with shorter (150, 300 year) coupled atmosphere‐ocean simulations and Slab Ocean Models (SOM). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled...

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Published in:Geophysical research letters 2020-08, Vol.47 (16), p.n/a
Main Authors: Dunn, John P., Winton, Michael, Bacmeister, Julio, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Gettelman, Andrew, Schmidt, Gavin A., Krasting, John P., Leung, L. Ruby, Nazarenko, Larissa, Sentman, Lori T., Stouffer, Ronald J.
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Language:English
Subjects:
Atmosphere
Atmospheric models
Carbon dioxide
Climate
climate model
Climate models
Climate sensitivity
Computer simulation
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Estimates
Intercomparison
Meteorology And Climatology
Methods
Ocean models
Oceans
Sensitivity enhancement
Simulation
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cited_by cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a4437-8e6f94fd225307b06569eafc48815777184ff89a63790592d7f3afa0fa73ad193
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container_issue 16
container_start_page
container_title Geophysical research letters
container_volume 47
creator Dunn, John P.
Winton, Michael
Bacmeister, Julio
Danabasoglu, Gokhan
Gettelman, Andrew
Schmidt, Gavin A.
Krasting, John P.
Leung, L. Ruby
Nazarenko, Larissa
Sentman, Lori T.
Stouffer, Ronald J.
description We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (≥ 800‐year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations with shorter (150, 300 year) coupled atmosphere‐ocean simulations and Slab Ocean Models (SOM). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1‐150 underestimate those from SOM (‐8% ± 13%) and long (‐14% ± 8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21‐150 improved agreement with SOM (‐2% ± 14%) and long (‐8% ± 10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51‐150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (‐4% ± 11%). While ECS estimates from current generation US models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1‐150 range from 2.6°C to 5.3°C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2°C to 7.0°C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.
doi_str_mv 10.1029/2020GL088852
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subjects Atmosphere
Atmospheric models
Carbon dioxide
Climate
climate model
Climate models
Climate sensitivity
Computer simulation
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Estimates
Intercomparison
Meteorology And Climatology
Methods
Ocean models
Oceans
Sensitivity enhancement
Simulation
title Comparison of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimates From Slab Ocean, 150‐Year, and Longer Simulations
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