Risk Prediction Tool for Assessing the Probability of Death or Myocardial Infarction in Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease

Several risk scores in acute coronary syndromes are available, but few models exist for stable coronary artery disease to guide decision-making and prognosis. A multivariate model was developed using 23 baseline candidate variables from the Clinical Outcomes Utilizing Revascularization and Aggressiv...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The American journal of cardiology 2020-09, Vol.130 (C), p.1-6
Main Authors: Boden, William E., Hartigan, Pamela M., Mancini, John, Teo, Koon K., Chaitman, Bernard R., Maron, David J., Kostuk, William J., Hartigan, John A., Dada, Marcin, Spertus, John A., Bates, Eric R., Weintraub, William S.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Acute coronary syndromes
Age
Angina pectoris
Arteries
Blood vessels
Cardiovascular disease
Chemotherapy
Cholesterol
Clinical decision making
Congestive heart failure
Coronary artery
Coronary artery disease
Coronary vessels
Death
Decision making
Diabetes
Diabetes mellitus
Drug therapy
Ejection fraction
Evaluation
Health risks
Heart attacks
Heart failure
Hypertension
Medical imaging
Medical prognosis
Mortality
Myocardial infarction
Patients
Physicians
Risk
Survival analysis
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Summary:Several risk scores in acute coronary syndromes are available, but few models exist for stable coronary artery disease to guide decision-making and prognosis. A multivariate model was developed using 23 baseline candidate variables from the Clinical Outcomes Utilizing Revascularization and Aggressive Drug Therapy EvaluationTrial (n = 2,287 patients). Discrimination of the model was evaluated by the concordance c-index. The procedure was validated using 100 random half samples. We identified 9 independent predictors of death or myocardial infarction (MI) during a 5-year follow-up. The following predictors and points contributing to the risk score were: heart failure (3), number of diseased coronary arteries (1 for each vessel), diabetes (1), age (1 for each 15 years ≥ age 45), previous revascularization (1), current smoking (1), female (1), previous MI (1), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (1: 31 to 40 mg/dL; 2:
ISSN:0002-9149
1879-1913
DOI:10.1016/j.amjcard.2020.05.046