Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S

The electric power sector in the United States faces many challenges related to climate change. On the demand side, climate change could shift demand patterns due to increased air temperatures. On the supply side, climate change could lead to deratings of thermal units due to changes in air temperat...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental science & technology 2021-02, Vol.55 (4), p.2522-2531
Main Authors: Ralston Fonseca, Francisco, Craig, Michael, Jaramillo, Paulina, Bergés, Mario, Severnini, Edson, Loew, Aviva, Zhai, Haibo, Cheng, Yifan, Nijssen, Bart, Voisin, Nathalie, Yearsley, John
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air temperature
Climate Change
Climate effects
Compounding
Decisions
Electric power
Electric power demand
Electric power generation
Electric power systems
Electricity
Electricity distribution
Energy and Climate
ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
Environmental modeling
Environmental risk
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Long-term planning
Peak demand
Power
Southeastern United States
Supply & demand
Temperature
United States
Water
Water availability
Water temperature
Wind
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Summary:The electric power sector in the United States faces many challenges related to climate change. On the demand side, climate change could shift demand patterns due to increased air temperatures. On the supply side, climate change could lead to deratings of thermal units due to changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability. Past studies have typically analyzed these risks separately. Here, we developed an integrated, multimodel framework to analyze how compounding risks of climate-change impacts on demand and supply affect long-term planning decisions in the power system. In the southeast U.S., we found that compounding climate-change impacts could result in a 35% increase in installed capacity by 2050 relative to the reference case. Participation of renewables, particularly solar, in the fleet increased, driven mostly by the expected increase in summertime peak demand. Such capacity requirements would increase investment costs by approximately 31 billion (USD 2015) over the next 30 years, compared to the reference case. These changes in investment decisions align with carbon emission mitigation strategies, highlighting how adaptation and mitigation strategies can converge.
ISSN:0013-936X
1520-5851
DOI:10.1021/acs.est.0c06547