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Near-real-time forecasting of lava flow hazards during the 12-13 January 2011 Etna eruption

Forecasting the lava flow invasion hazard in near‐real time is a primary challenge for volcano monitoring systems. The paroxysmal episode at Mount Etna on 12–13 January 2011 produced in ∼4 hours lava fountains and fast‐moving lava flows 4.3 km long. We produced timely predictions of the areas likely...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2011-07, Vol.38 (13), p.n/a
Main Authors: Vicari, A., Ganci, G., Behncke, B., Cappello, A., Neri, M., Del Negro, C.
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:Forecasting the lava flow invasion hazard in near‐real time is a primary challenge for volcano monitoring systems. The paroxysmal episode at Mount Etna on 12–13 January 2011 produced in ∼4 hours lava fountains and fast‐moving lava flows 4.3 km long. We produced timely predictions of the areas likely to be inundated by lava flows while the eruption was still ongoing. We employed infrared satellite data (MODIS, AVHRR, SEVIRI) to estimate in near‐real‐time lava eruption rates (peak value of 60 m3 s−1). These time‐varying discharge rates were then used to drive MAGFLOW simulations to chart the spread of lava as a function of time. Based on a classification on durations and lava volumes of ∼130 paroxysms at Etna in the past 13 years, and on lava flow path simulations of expected eruptions, we constructed a lava flow invasion hazard map for summit eruptions, providing a rapid response to the impending hazard. This allowed key at‐risk areas to be rapidly and appropriately identified. Key Points Multiplatform satellite analysis to drive real time lava flow simulations Classification of the eruptive paroxysms of the SE Crater at Mt Etna Hazard map for summit eruptions based on historical data and flow simulations
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1029/2011GL047545