Production Modeling in the Oil and Natural Gas Industry: An Application of Trend Analysis

Oil and natural gas (NG) play an important role in the world economy. Therefore, accurate forecast models for future production levels in the industry are needed for better planning and less risky business environment. The author uses trend analysis to model oil and NG production. For modeling, tren...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Petroleum science and technology 2014-03, Vol.32 (5), p.555-564
Main Author: Aydin, G.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Business
Crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products
Economic forecasting
Energy
Exact sciences and technology
Fuels
Global economy
Mathematical models
modeling
Natural gas
oil
Petroleum products, gas and fuels. Motor fuels, lubricants and asphalts
Processing of crude oil and oils from shales and tar sands. Processes. Equipment. Refinery and treatment units
Regression analysis
Trend analysis
Trends
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Summary:Oil and natural gas (NG) play an important role in the world economy. Therefore, accurate forecast models for future production levels in the industry are needed for better planning and less risky business environment. The author uses trend analysis to model oil and NG production. For modeling, trends in the global oil and NG production during the period 1985-2010 are identified and linear regression analysis is employed according to the trend observed. The developed models are tested by the t distribution, the F distribution, and the residual analysis. The proposed models are used to forecast the future production trend in the industry. The results show that the proposed models can be effectively used for forecasting of future oil and NG production. The results are thought to provide a powerful tool for researchers, planners, and investors working in the energy field.
ISSN:1091-6466
1532-2459
DOI:10.1080/10916466.2013.825271