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Modeling Framework to Describe the Transmission of Bluetongue Virus within and between Farms in Great Britain

Background: Recently much attention has been given to developing national-scale micro-simulation models for livestock diseases that can be used to predict spread and assess the impact of control measures. The focus of these models has been on directly transmitted infections with little attention giv...

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Published in:PloS one 2009-11, Vol.4 (11), p.e7741-e7741
Main Authors: Szmaragd, Camille, Wilson, Anthony J, Carpenter, Simon, Wood, James L.N, Mellor, Philip S, Gubbins, Simon
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Wilson, Anthony J
Carpenter, Simon
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Gubbins, Simon
description Background: Recently much attention has been given to developing national-scale micro-simulation models for livestock diseases that can be used to predict spread and assess the impact of control measures. The focus of these models has been on directly transmitted infections with little attention given to vector-borne diseases such as bluetongue, a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. Yet BT has emerged over the past decade as one of the most important diseases of livestock. Methodology/Principal Findings: We developed a stochastic, spatially-explicit, farm-level model to describe the spread of bluetongue virus (BTV) within and between farms. Transmission between farms was modeled by a generic kernel, which includes both animal and vector movements. Once a farm acquired infection, the within-farm dynamics were simulated based on the number of cattle and sheep kept on the farm and on local temperatures. Parameter estimates were derived from the published literature and using data from the outbreak of bluetongue in northern Europe in 2006. The model was validated using data on the spread of BTV in Great Britain during 2007. The sensitivity of model predictions to the shape of the transmission kernel was assessed. Conclusions/Significance: The model is able to replicate the dynamics of BTV in Great Britain. Although uncertainty remains over the precise shape of the transmission kernel and certain aspects of the vector, the modeling approach we develop constitutes an ideal framework in which to incorporate these aspects as more and better data become available. Moreover, the model provides a tool with which to examine scenarios for the spread and control of BTV in Great Britain.
doi_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pone.0007741
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The focus of these models has been on directly transmitted infections with little attention given to vector-borne diseases such as bluetongue, a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. Yet BT has emerged over the past decade as one of the most important diseases of livestock. Methodology/Principal Findings: We developed a stochastic, spatially-explicit, farm-level model to describe the spread of bluetongue virus (BTV) within and between farms. Transmission between farms was modeled by a generic kernel, which includes both animal and vector movements. Once a farm acquired infection, the within-farm dynamics were simulated based on the number of cattle and sheep kept on the farm and on local temperatures. Parameter estimates were derived from the published literature and using data from the outbreak of bluetongue in northern Europe in 2006. The model was validated using data on the spread of BTV in Great Britain during 2007. The sensitivity of model predictions to the shape of the transmission kernel was assessed. Conclusions/Significance: The model is able to replicate the dynamics of BTV in Great Britain. Although uncertainty remains over the precise shape of the transmission kernel and certain aspects of the vector, the modeling approach we develop constitutes an ideal framework in which to incorporate these aspects as more and better data become available. 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The focus of these models has been on directly transmitted infections with little attention given to vector-borne diseases such as bluetongue, a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. Yet BT has emerged over the past decade as one of the most important diseases of livestock. Methodology/Principal Findings: We developed a stochastic, spatially-explicit, farm-level model to describe the spread of bluetongue virus (BTV) within and between farms. Transmission between farms was modeled by a generic kernel, which includes both animal and vector movements. Once a farm acquired infection, the within-farm dynamics were simulated based on the number of cattle and sheep kept on the farm and on local temperatures. Parameter estimates were derived from the published literature and using data from the outbreak of bluetongue in northern Europe in 2006. The model was validated using data on the spread of BTV in Great Britain during 2007. The sensitivity of model predictions to the shape of the transmission kernel was assessed. Conclusions/Significance: The model is able to replicate the dynamics of BTV in Great Britain. Although uncertainty remains over the precise shape of the transmission kernel and certain aspects of the vector, the modeling approach we develop constitutes an ideal framework in which to incorporate these aspects as more and better data become available. Moreover, the model provides a tool with which to examine scenarios for the spread and control of BTV in Great Britain.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>19890400</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0007741</doi><tpages>e7741</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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1932-6203
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subjects Analysis
Animal diseases
Animal Husbandry - methods
Animals
Biting
Bluetongue
Bluetongue - epidemiology
Bluetongue - virology
Bluetongue virus - genetics
Cattle
Cattle Diseases - epidemiology
Cattle Diseases - virology
Ceratopogonidae
Ceratopogonidae - virology
Chironomidae
Computer simulation
Culicoides
Diptera
Disease Outbreaks - veterinary
Disease transmission
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Farms
Fatalities
Feeds
Female
Foot & mouth disease
Infection
Infections
Infectious Diseases/Epidemiology and Control of Infectious Diseases
Insect Control
Insect Vectors - virology
Laboratories
Likelihood Functions
Livestock
Mathematical models
Mathematics/Statistics
Medical research
Modelling
Models, Statistical
Mortality
Outbreaks
Ovis aries
Public Health and Epidemiology/Epidemiology
Sheep
Simulation
Stochasticity
United Kingdom
Vector-borne diseases
Veterinary medicine
Viral diseases
Viral infections
Viruses
title Modeling Framework to Describe the Transmission of Bluetongue Virus within and between Farms in Great Britain
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