A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use

Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2013-02, Vol.8 (2), p.e57750
Main Authors: Liu, Junguo, Folberth, Christian, Yang, Hong, Röckström, Johan, Abbaspour, Karim, Zehnder, Alexander J B
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptation
Agricultural Irrigation
Agricultural production
Agriculture
Aquatic sciences
Biology
Biomass
Cereal crops
Cereals
Climate Change
Conservation of Natural Resources
Crop production
Crops
Crops, Agricultural - growth & development
Earth Sciences
Ecosystems
Environmental assessment
Food
Food consumption
Food production
Food security
Geography
Growth models
Irrigation
Linearity
Models, Theoretical
Oryza
Productivity
Rice
Security
Simulation
Spatial discrimination
Spatial resolution
Sustainable development
Uncertainty
Water scarcity
Water security
Water Supply
Water use
Wheat
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Summary:Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0057750