Space-for-time substitution works in everglades ecological forecasting models

Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Flor...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2013-11, Vol.8 (11), p.e81025-e81025
Main Authors: Banet, Amanda I, Trexler, Joel C
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Biodiversity
Birds
Crustacea
Crustaceans
Datasets
Drying
Ecological monitoring
Ecosystem
Ecosystems
Feasibility studies
Florida
Forecasting
Geospatial data
Hydrology
Lucania goodei
Mathematical models
Models, Theoretical
Prairies
Prediction models
Reproducibility of Results
Researchers
Spatial data
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
Studies
Substitutes
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Summary:Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-for-time substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0081025