Optimising assessments of the epidemiological impact in The Netherlands of paediatric immunisation with 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine using dynamic transmission modelling

This work is the first attempt to quantify the overall effects of a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccination programme in the Dutch population taking into account all the direct and indirect effects of the vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease. Using available Dutch data, a dy...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2014-04, Vol.9 (4), p.e89415-e89415
Main Authors: De Cao, Elisabetta, Melegaro, Alessia, Klok, Rogier, Postma, Maarten
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analgesics
Bacteremia
Bacterial pneumonia
Biology and Life Sciences
Child
Child, Preschool
Complications and side effects
Development and progression
Disease
Disease transmission
Epidemiology
Haemophilus influenzae
Health aspects
Herd immunity
Humans
Immunity
Immunization
Immunology
Infant
Mathematical models
Medicine and Health Sciences
Models, Biological
Netherlands
Parameter sensitivity
Patient outcomes
Pharmacy
Pneumococcal Infections - immunology
Pneumococcal Infections - prevention & control
Pneumococcal Infections - transmission
Pneumococcal Vaccines - immunology
Pneumococcal Vaccines - therapeutic use
Pneumonia
Research and Analysis Methods
Risk factors
Sensitivity analysis
Streptococcus infections
Streptococcus pneumoniae
Surveillance
Time Factors
Vaccination
Vaccines
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Summary:This work is the first attempt to quantify the overall effects of a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccination programme in the Dutch population taking into account all the direct and indirect effects of the vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease. Using available Dutch data, a dynamic transmission model for the spread of pneumococci and potential subsequent invasive pneumococcal disease has been adapted to the Dutch setting. Overall, invasive pneumococcal disease cases in the Netherlands are predicted to decrease from a pre-vaccination level of 2623 cases annually to 2475, 2289, 2185, 2179, and 2178 cases annually 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-, and 40-years, respectively, post-vaccination. Therefore, vaccination with PCV13 in the Netherlands is predicted to lower invasive pneumococcal disease cases per year by up to 445 cases in the medium- to long-term. The results are quite robust for the sensitivity analyses performed on the parameters that regulate herd immunity and competition between vaccine and non-vaccine types.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0089415