Avoided heat-related mortality through climate adaptation strategies in three US cities

Heat-related mortality in US cities is expected to more than double by the mid-to-late 21st century. Rising heat exposure in cities is projected to result from: 1) climate forcings from changing global atmospheric composition; and 2) local land surface characteristics responsible for the urban heat...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2014-06, Vol.9 (6), p.e100852
Main Authors: Stone, Jr, Brian, Vargo, Jason, Liu, Peng, Habeeb, Dana, DeLucia, Anthony, Trail, Marcus, Hu, Yongtao, Russell, Armistead
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptation
Albedo
Analysis
Atmosphere
Atmospheric composition
Atmospheric models
Censuses
Cities
Cities - statistics & numerical data
Climate adaptation
Climate change
Climate Change - mortality
Climate models
Earth Sciences
Engineering
Environmental engineering
Environmental management
Exposure
Global climate
Global temperature changes
Health aspects
Heat
Heat waves
Hot Temperature
Humans
Medicine and Health Sciences
Metropolitan areas
Models, Statistical
Mortality
Occupational health
Outdoor air quality
Population growth
Regional climate models
Regional climates
Seasons
Strategic planning (Business)
Studies
Surface properties
Temperature
Time series
United States
Urban climatology
Urban heat islands
Urban populations
Warm seasons
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Summary:Heat-related mortality in US cities is expected to more than double by the mid-to-late 21st century. Rising heat exposure in cities is projected to result from: 1) climate forcings from changing global atmospheric composition; and 2) local land surface characteristics responsible for the urban heat island effect. The extent to which heat management strategies designed to lessen the urban heat island effect could offset future heat-related mortality remains unexplored in the literature. Using coupled global and regional climate models with a human health effects model, we estimate changes in the number of heat-related deaths in 2050 resulting from modifications to vegetative cover and surface albedo across three climatically and demographically diverse US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. Employing separate health impact functions for average warm season and heat wave conditions in 2050, we find combinations of vegetation and albedo enhancement to offset projected increases in heat-related mortality by 40 to 99% across the three metropolitan regions. These results demonstrate the potential for extensive land surface changes in cities to provide adaptive benefits to urban populations at risk for rising heat exposure with climate change.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0100852