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The Impact of a Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Health and Health Care Costs: A Modelling Study

This paper aims to estimate the consequences of an additional 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on health and health care expenditure. Participants were adult (aged > = 20) Australians alive in 2010, who were modelled over their remaining lifetime. We used lifetable-based epidemiologica...

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Published in:PloS one 2016-04, Vol.11 (4), p.e0151460-e0151460
Main Authors: Veerman, J Lennert, Sacks, Gary, Antonopoulos, Nicole, Martin, Jane
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Sacks, Gary
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description This paper aims to estimate the consequences of an additional 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on health and health care expenditure. Participants were adult (aged > = 20) Australians alive in 2010, who were modelled over their remaining lifetime. We used lifetable-based epidemiological modelling to examine the potential impact of a 20% valoric tax on SSBs on total lifetime disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, prevalence, and mortality of obesity-related disease, and health care expenditure. Over the lifetime of adult Australian alive in 2010, seemingly modest estimated changes in average body mass as a result of the SSB tax translated to gains of 112,000 health-adjusted life years for men (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 73,000-155,000) and 56,000 (95% UI: 36,000-76,000) for women, and a reduction in overall health care expenditure of AUD609 million (95% UI: 368 million- 870 million). The tax is estimated to reduce the number of new type 2 diabetes cases by approximately 800 per year. Twenty-five years after the introduction of the tax, there would be 4,400 fewer prevalent cases of heart disease and 1,100 fewer persons living with the consequences of stroke, and an estimated 1606 extra people would be alive as a result of the tax. The tax would generate an estimated AUD400 million in revenue each year. Governments should consider increasing the tax on sugared drinks. This would improve population health, reduce health care costs, as well as bring in direct revenue.
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Twenty-five years after the introduction of the tax, there would be 4,400 fewer prevalent cases of heart disease and 1,100 fewer persons living with the consequences of stroke, and an estimated 1606 extra people would be alive as a result of the tax. The tax would generate an estimated AUD400 million in revenue each year. Governments should consider increasing the tax on sugared drinks. This would improve population health, reduce health care costs, as well as bring in direct revenue.</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>Public Library of Science</pub><pmid>27073855</pmid><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0151460</doi><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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identifier ISSN: 1932-6203
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source Publicly Available Content Database; PubMed Central(OpenAccess)
subjects Adult
Alcohol
Analysis
Australia
Australia - epidemiology
Beverages
Biology and Life Sciences
Body mass
Body size
Carbonated Beverages - adverse effects
Carbonated Beverages - economics
Consumers
Coronary artery disease
Cost analysis
Cost of Illness
Costs and Cost Analysis
Diabetes mellitus
Diabetes mellitus (non-insulin dependent)
Diet
Economic aspects
Economic models
Epidemiology
Excise taxes
Female
Food
Health aspects
Health care costs
Health care expenditures
Heart diseases
Humans
Low income groups
Male
Medicine and Health Sciences
Modelling
Models, Economic
Mortality
Nutrition research
Obesity
Overweight - chemically induced
Overweight - economics
Overweight - epidemiology
People and Places
Physiological aspects
Population
Prevention
Price elasticity
Public health
Revenue
Risk factors
Social Sciences
Studies
Sugar
Sweetening Agents - adverse effects
Sweetening Agents - economics
Systematic review
Taxation
Taxes - economics
title The Impact of a Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Health and Health Care Costs: A Modelling Study
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