Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001-2015 time p...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2017-02, Vol.12 (2), p.e0170949-e0170949
Main Authors: Dahl, Kristina A, Fitzpatrick, Melanie F, Spanger-Siegfried, Erika
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate
Climate change
Coasts
Earth Sciences
Environmental aspects
Environmental assessment
Environmental Monitoring
Flood frequency
Flooding
Floods
Gauges
Global sea level
High tide
Ice
Ocean circulation
Physical Sciences
Sea level
Sea level rise
Sea level rise effects
Seawater
Tidal flooding
Tidal floods
United States
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Summary:Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001-2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0170949