Spatio-temporal patterns of gun violence in Syracuse, New York 2009-2015

Gun violence in the United States of America is a large public health problem that disproportionately affects urban areas. The epidemiology of gun violence reflects various aspects of an infectious disease including spatial and temporal clustering. We examined the spatial and temporal trends of gun...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2017-03, Vol.12 (3), p.e0173001-e0173001
Main Authors: Larsen, David A, Lane, Sandra, Jennings-Bey, Timothy, Haygood-El, Arnett, Brundage, Kim, Rubinstein, Robert A
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Addictions
Addictive behaviors
African Americans
Aggression
Ambulatory care
Behavior
Census of Population
Cities
Cluster Analysis
Clustering
Clusters
Domestic violence
Epidemiology
Firearms
Forecasts and trends
Gangs
Geography - trends
Gun violence
Humans
Incidence
Infectious diseases
Injuries
Medicine and Health Sciences
Neighborhoods
New York
Nutrition
People and places
Poisson density functions
Police
Poverty
Poverty Areas
Public health
Regression Analysis
Research and Analysis Methods
Seasons
Segregation
Social networks
Social Sciences
Statistical analysis
Time
Trauma
Trends
Urban areas
Violence
Violence - trends
Violent crime
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Summary:Gun violence in the United States of America is a large public health problem that disproportionately affects urban areas. The epidemiology of gun violence reflects various aspects of an infectious disease including spatial and temporal clustering. We examined the spatial and temporal trends of gun violence in Syracuse, New York, a city of 145,000. We used a spatial scan statistic to reveal spatio-temporal clusters of gunshots investigated and corroborated by Syracuse City Police Department for the years 2009-2015. We also examined predictors of areas with increased gun violence using a multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression with data from the 2010 census. Two space-time clusters of gun violence were revealed in the city. Higher rates of segregation, poverty and the summer months were all associated with increased risk of gun violence. Previous gunshots in the area were associated with a 26.8% increase in the risk of gun violence. Gun violence in Syracuse, NY is both spatially and temporally stable, with some neighborhoods of the city greatly afflicted.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0173001