Increasing airline travel may facilitate co-circulation of multiple dengue virus serotypes in Asia

• Published in: PLoS neglected tropical diseases 2017-08, Vol.11 (8), p.e0005694-e0005694
• Main Authors: Tian, Huaiyu, Sun, Zhe, Faria, Nuno Rodrigues, Yang, Jing, Cazelles, Bernard, Huang, Shanqian, Xu, Bo, Yang, Qiqi, Pybus, Oliver G, Xu, Bing
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air; Air traffic; Air traffic control; Air transport; Air transportation; Air transportation industry; Air Travel; Aircraft; Airlines; Americas - epidemiology; Asia - epidemiology; Asia, Southeastern - epidemiology; Aviation; Biology and Life Sciences; Cambodia; China; Circulation; Climate change; Computer and Information Sciences; Countries; Dengue; Dengue - epidemiology; Dengue - prevention & control; Dengue - transmission; Dengue - virology; Dengue fever; Dengue virus; Dengue Virus - classification; Dengue Virus - immunology; Dengue Virus - isolation & purification; Diffusion; Dye dispersion; Dynamics; Earth Sciences; Ecology and Environmental Sciences; Education; Emerging diseases; Engineering and Technology; Epidemics; Epidemiology; Evolution, Molecular; Frameworks; General circulation models; History; Hubs; Human diseases; Human health and pathology; Humans; India - epidemiology; Indonesia; Infections; Infectious diseases; Influence; Laboratories; Life Sciences; Malaria; Marine transportation; Medicine and Health Sciences; Migration; Migrations; Mosquitoes; People and Places; Phylogeography; Population; Public health; R&D; Remote sensing; Research & development; Research and Analysis Methods; RNA, Viral - isolation & purification; Santé publique et épidémiologie; Serogroup; Serotypes; Services; Singapore; Socioeconomic Factors; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Thailand; Thailand - epidemiology; Transmission; Transportation; Transportation networks; Tropical diseases; Vaccines; Vector-borne diseases; Viral diseases; Viruses; Zoology
• ISSN: 1935-2735; 1935-2727; 1935-2735
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005694

The incidence of dengue has grown dramatically in recent decades worldwide, especially in Southeast Asia and the Americas with substantial transmission in 2014-2015. Yet the mechanisms underlying the spatio-temporal circulation of dengue virus (DENV) serotypes at large geographical scales remain elusive. Here we investigate the co-circulation in Asia of DENV serotypes 1-3 from 1956 to 2015, using a statistical framework that jointly estimates migration history and quantifies potential predictors of viral spatial diffusion, including socio-economic, air transportation and maritime mobility data. We find that the spread of DENV-1, -2 and -3 lineages in Asia is significantly associated with air traffic. Our analyses suggest the network centrality of air traffic hubs such as Thailand and India contribute to seeding dengue epidemics, whilst China, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Singapore may establish viral diffusion links with multiple countries in Asia. Phylogeographic reconstructions help to explain how growing air transportation networks could influence the dynamics of DENV circulation.