Ecological niche and geographic distribution of human monkeypox in Africa

Monkeypox virus, a zoonotic member of the genus Orthopoxviridae, can cause a severe, smallpox-like illness in humans. Monkeypox virus is thought to be endemic to forested areas of western and Central Africa. Considerably more is known about human monkeypox disease occurrence than about natural sylva...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PloS one 2007-01, Vol.2 (1), p.e176-e176
Main Authors: Levine, Rebecca S, Peterson, A Townsend, Yorita, Krista L, Carroll, Darin, Damon, Inger K, Reynolds, Mary G
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Africa - epidemiology
Algorithms
Analysis
Animals
Annual precipitation
Biodiversity
Climate change
Data collection
Disease control
Disease prevention
Disease transmission
Ecological effects
Ecological monitoring
Ecological niches
Ecological studies
Ecology
Ecosystem
Epidemiology
Geographical distribution
Geography
Health promotion
Human monkeypox
Humans
Infectious Diseases
Informatics
Information science
Mathematical models
Mean annual precipitation
Medical laboratories
Microscopy
Models, Theoretical
Monkeypox
Monkeypox virus - pathogenicity
Mpox
Mpox (monkeypox) - epidemiology
Niche (Ecology)
Niches
Orthopoxvirus
Parasitic diseases
Phylogeny
Prediction models
Public health
Public Health and Epidemiology
Smallpox
Studies
Trees
Tropical diseases
Viral infections
Virology
Viruses
World Health Organization
Zoonoses
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Description
Summary:Monkeypox virus, a zoonotic member of the genus Orthopoxviridae, can cause a severe, smallpox-like illness in humans. Monkeypox virus is thought to be endemic to forested areas of western and Central Africa. Considerably more is known about human monkeypox disease occurrence than about natural sylvatic cycles of this virus in non-human animal hosts. We use human monkeypox case data from Africa for 1970-2003 in an ecological niche modeling framework to construct predictive models of the ecological requirements and geographic distribution of monkeypox virus across West and Central Africa. Tests of internal predictive ability using different subsets of input data show the model to be highly robust and suggest that the distinct phylogenetic lineages of monkeypox in West Africa and Central Africa occupy similar ecological niches. High mean annual precipitation and low elevations were shown to be highly correlated with human monkeypox disease occurrence. The synthetic picture of the potential geographic distribution of human monkeypox in Africa resulting from this study should support ongoing epidemiologic and ecological studies, as well as help to guide public health intervention strategies to areas at highest risk for human monkeypox.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0000176