Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet

• Published in: PloS one 2018-01, Vol.13 (1), p.e0191773-e0191773
• Main Authors: Hermes, Claudia, Keller, Klaus, Nicholas, Robert E, Segelbacher, Gernot, Schaefer, H Martin
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Altitude; Animals; Availability; Behavior; Biodiversity; Biology and Life Sciences; Climate Change; Climate change influences; Climate change scenarios; Climate models; Cloud forests; Connectivity; Conservation; Conservation of Natural Resources; Deforestation; Earth Sciences; Ecology; Ecology and Environmental Sciences; Ecosystem; Ecuador; Endangered & extinct species; Endangered Species - trends; Endemic species; Environmental aspects; Environmental assessment; Environmental impact; Environmental protection; Forests; Genetic diversity; Global temperature changes; Habitat availability; Habitat changes; Habitat conservation; Habitat loss; Habitats; Influence; Models, Biological; Mountain climates; Natural resources; Parakeets; Population decline; Population number; Protection and preservation; Reduction; Tropical Climate; Tropical climates; Tropical forests; Vegetation; Wildlife conservation
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0191773

In tropical montane cloud forests, climate change can cause upslope shifts in the distribution ranges of species, leading to reductions in distributional range. Endemic species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable to such decreases in range size, as the population size may be reduced significantly. To ensure the survival of cloud forest species in the long term, it is crucial to quantify potential future shifts in their distribution ranges and the related changes in habitat availability in order to assure the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. In this study, we assessed the influence of climate change on the availability of forested habitat for the endemic El Oro parakeet. We investigated the future range shift by modelling the climatic niche of the El Oro parakeets and projecting it to four different climate change scenarios. Depending on the intensity of climate change, the El Oro parakeets shift their range between 500 and 1700 m uphill by the year 2100. On average, the shift is accompanied by a reduction in range size to 15% and a reduction in forested habitat to only 10% of the original extent. Additionally, the connectivity between populations in different areas is decreasing in higher altitudes. To prevent a population decline due to habitat loss following an upslope range shift, it will be necessary to restore habitat across a large elevational span in order to allow for movement of El Oro parakeets into higher altitudes.